In the piece below the agricultural correspondent of India's Financial Express, Ashok B. Sharma, takes a careful look at the current hype being pumped out in India about Bt cotton being responsible for last year's bumper cotton crop. This has been pushed not only by the industry and its supporters but by the Agricultural Ministry which is currently adopting a strongly pro-GM position.

Yet the claim is clearly nonsense. Bt cotton was not grown on a sufficient acreage to have that kind of impact and as Ashok Sharma shows there are a whole series of reasons unconnected with Bt for last year's good harvest.

He also notes the evidence that Bt cotton may yet again have actually performed poorly: 'PV Satheesh of Deccan Development Society said that Bt cotton failed to perform yet again in the third consecutive year in parts of South India. "We have conducted a survey with the help of agronomists and scientists and will soon come out with a report."'
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Bumper cotton crop : Is it a Bt magic?
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=83185

"The recent estimate of the government shows a bumper cotton crop, while the output of foodgrains, oilseeds, jute and sugarcane has declined."

ASHOK B SHARMA

Financial Express, Monday, February 21, 2005

The recent estimate of the government shows a bumper cotton crop, while the output of foodgrains, oilseeds, jute and sugarcane has declined.

According to the government estimate for the crop year 2004-05, the total foodgrains output will decline by 2.67% to be at 212.08 million tonne. The data, however, shows a marginal improvement in rice output to 87.80 million tonne from 87 million tonne in the previous year. Wheat output is pegged at 73.03 million from 72.06 million tonne in the previous year. Coarse cereals output has fallen by 15.6%. Pulses out has declined by 10.25%. The output of nine major oilseeds has declined by 1.21%.

Incidentally, the output of cotton has dramatically increased to 17.07 million bales (of 170 kg each) from 13.788 million bales in the previous year.

This indeed is a record production. It has also surpassed the target of 15 million bales. This situation leads us to consider how this could happen when the output of all other crops has fallen.

As for other crops there is a simple answer. The deficient monsoon rainfall in 2004 adversely impacted the output of major summer crops. But cotton too is a summer crop. How could it survive the nature’s fury ? We had a Bt cotton cultivation in an area of 500,000 hectare in 2004 as reported by the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA). Was this phenomenal increase in cotton output due to the cultivation of Bt cotton?

The advocates of transgenic technology in India do make out a case that the increase in cotton output is solely due to larger cultivation of Bt cotton. But this may not be true. There are several other factors responsible for the increased cotton output.

Cotton, a summer crop, thrives well when the incidence of pest and diseases is less. In year 2004, fortunately for cotton, the deficient rainfall in the monsoon season was a blessing. The deficient rainfall resulted in low humidity in the atmosphere. Pests like bollworm thrive when levels of humidity are high. Thus on account of poor rainfall there was less incidence of pests and diseases and lesser damage to cotton crop leading to a bumper harvest.

The weekly reports of the government’s Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) had also reported time to time about low incidence of pests in areas of deficient rainfall. The CWWG has also noted shifting of area from other crops to cotton. Cotton requires comparatively lesser water than other crops and farmers found convenient to shift to cotton on account of deficient rainfall. This resulted in an increase in cotton area in 2004 to about 10 million from the the normal of nine million hectare. The CWWG reported in August end about 8.22 million hectare being covered under cotton. This figure of CWWG, however, is not the total area coverage under cotton. Cotton sowing continues till later part of the year in southern states, particularly, in Tamil Nadu. Hence there are evidences of cotton area increasing above the normal.

India had experienced a severe drought in 2002 and the output of all crops including cotton fell sharply. Cotton output fell to 8.72 million bales. But the impact of deficient rainfall in 2004 was less severe than that in 2002.

Now coming to Bt cotton in particular. The inserted Bt gene is said to protect the balls from bollworm. It does not otherwise increase the yield of the crop, it may save from damages caused by certain pests.

As per ISAAA the area covered under Bt cotton is only 500,000 hectare out of the total area of about 10 million hectare. It also says that area under Bt cotton represents only 11% of the hybrid cotton area. (Only Bt cotton hybrids are approved in India so far). Ranjana Smetacek of Monsanto India said ; "About 2.5 million out of 4 million cotton growers in the country grows hybrid cotton and Bt cotton seeds were sold to over 350,000 farmers in 2004." She said that IMRB is conducting a survey to assess the performance of Bt cultivation in 2004.

PV Satheesh of Deccan Development Society said that Bt cotton failed to perform yet again in the third consecutive year in parts of South India. "We have conducted a survey with the help of agronomists and scientists and will soon come out with a report."

The performance of Bt cotton in 2004 is still an open debate. But it is certain that there are several factors responsible for a bumper cotton crop, particularly, the low incidence of pests and diseases on account of deficient rainfall. In 2004 there was a low incidence of pests and diseases in major cotton growing areas. Hence it is time to consider whether it is a Bt magic or a monsoon magic behind the bumper cotton output.