NOTE: An interesting report has just been published by Glauber Silveira, the president of Aprosoja, the Brazilian soy producers association, regarding his and Brazilian Senator Blairo Maggi's recent visit to China to meet with the Chinese government. The topic of discussion was China's large and ever-increasing need for soy imports.
Silveira reports that the Chinese government expressed a preference for non-GM soybeans to supply a significant proportion of the population, "even if they have to pay more".
Silveira and co-delegates told the Chinese that in the short-term (this implies this year), as much as 10 million tonnes of non-GM soy could be made available from Brazil
Brazil's total soy harvest this year was 80 million tonnes. Out of this 80 million tonnes, Silveira says 10 millions tonnes are non-GM and could be supplied to China soon. Another 5 million tonnes have been certified non-GM by one firm alone -- Cert ID -- and that is contracted to the European mainland market
http://gmwatch.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14773:enough-non-gm-soy-to-fulfil-europes-animal-feed-need
In total, that's 18.75% of the entire harvest that's known to be non-GM.
But that isn't all, as there are other companies certifying and supplying non-GM soy. And still more non-GM soy is grown in Brazil but the producers do not bother to segregate and certify it non-GM, due to lack of advance purchase contracts. The total non-GM proportion of the Brazilian harvest is therefore likely to be 20-25%. That confirms the figure of one quarter of the harvest suggested by Abrange, the Brazilian non-GM soy producers' association:
http://www.foodnavigator.com/On-your-radar/GM-food/UK-retailers-misled-about-tight-non-GM-feed-supply-say-suppliers
Silveira's report from China unintentionally reveals that British retailers and the British public are being played for fools by some elements of Big Soy agribiz. Recently, several UK supermarkets abandoned their non-GM feed requirements for their suppliers of animal products, claiming that there wasn't enough non-GM soy available from Brazil.
Silveira's report re-emphasises that Brazilian producers are eager to plant whatever consumers want. For them it is no problem to plant more non-GM, if they know they can sell it. It's becoming obvious that British retailers simply haven't bothered to ensure that their non-GM soy supplies continue.
China is by far the biggest buyer of soy from Brazil, so China's view of GMOs will dictate what proportion of GM to non-GM soy Brazil plants. It seems China is not keen on GM, perhaps because of strong public pressure and partly due to the fact that China has investigative journalists who look into the issue and uncover alarming facts.
http://gmwatch.org/latest-listing/52-2013/14715-gmo-problems-in-china-part-1
http://gmwatch.org/latest-listing/52-2013/14716-gmo-problems-in-china-part-2
It's also worth noting that China has not approved Monsanto's Intacta RR2 soy for import -- though Europe has. Brazilian producers have been warned not to plant RR2 until China approves it.
http://www.agriculture.com/news/business/brazil-soy-group-warns-farmers-against_5-ar26172?print
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China changes for the future
Glauber Silveira
Agrodebate.com (Brazil), 19 April 2013
http://www.agrodebate.com.br/_conteudo/2013/04/colunistas/glauber_silveira/7756-china-mudancas-para-o-futuro.html
[EXCERPT: Slightly edited Google translation from the Portuguese]
Another point that stands out relates to GMOs. There was clear corporate interest in conventional [non-GM] soybeans. When asked what is the market trend in the relationship between GM and non-GM crops, [the Chinese said] the majority of the population is less sensitive to this issue, or buys the cheapest. However, a significant proportion of the Chinese population, with better financial conditions, is careful and has a preference for non-GM products.
All [Chinese] importers [of soy] from Brazil who spoke expressed interest in creating a specific market for conventional soybeans, even if they have to pay more. We questioned the possibility of providing short-term volume exceeding 10 million tons of soy. This draws attention and can influence the whole market; after all, we producers will plant what consumers demand.
There is a change in trend regarding Chinese imports and security of food supply -- there is also a tendency to make space for non-GM and GM soy. This, for us producers, is very positive as it allows us to handle both technologies. However, it is clear that we have urgent homework to do with regard to infrastructure.